The Republicans are Dead – Long live the Republicans

What is to become of the two party system?

The Republican Party, as now constituted, will never win a national election again.  Four years of difficult ground work lies ahead.   The fundamental message of the Republicans is one of individual initiative as the only path to prosperity. Let’s focus on jobs and demographics.

Jobs.

• The continuing Republican mantra for no tax increases does not resonate with anyone except those making big money.  In fact, no one believes that corporate executives, big bankers, and Wall Street brokers that make high six and seven figure salaries with access to lavish bonuses deserve any break.  They create no jobs; they create no new businesses; they merely manipulate financial structure.  Indeed, they profit only from the work of others.  They can truly pay more.  Their bonus structure will compensate them for higher taxes.  Nothing much can done about that.
• Small businesses do create jobs.  Small businesses create wealth.   All seem to agree on this - on both sides of the aisle.  This is the sustaining message of the last presidential cycle.  Most agree small business should not be pummeled by increased taxes.  Therefore, there should be a differentiated tax structure that exempts small business owners from tax hikes.  They will be encouraged to build their businesses and to create needed jobs.
• Small businesses should be granted some type of automatic waivers from the expected exponentiating insurance costs in the coming Affordable Care Act.  Substantial regulatory restrictions on creating new business and extant small business should be lifted.
• Corporate America should be given incentives to keep their funds at home.  It seems that only a calculated minority respond to an appeal for “love of country.” This appeal, possibly a Gov. Romney misjudgment, would have been effective in the country in which he grew up.  Me too. That country is no more.

Demographics

•         Actually the Republicans did win the election.  A simple calculation shows that at least 20%, maybe higher, block voted for the Democrats.  No thinking, no consideration, just vote the ticket.  This leaves only 80% of the voters in play.  For Romney to have nearly split the total vote means he captured about 62% of the true voting population.  It was not enough.

•         The true vote consists of considered voters, on both sides, that actually believe in the foundations of what the candidate proposed.  This is the American way. 

•          However, if anyone has 20% of the vote locked up, all that is required is a strategy of appealing to a limited number of constituencies, their base and a few more.  This is profound fact and affects strategic campaign calculations. And it works.

Finally, the Republicans must get on message and keep the wild-eyed candidates out of the action.  For example, in the presidential primaries, anyone on the far right can easily gain 20-40% or even more of the Republican electorate.  Divisive this is.  It makes them look good, but they are DOA in the general.  Republicans must appeal to all, and more importantly be perceived as interested in all.  To nearly 50% of the electorate, taxes are simply not a considered factor.  Any pledge, or stress, to not raise taxes on all matters nothing to most – not even one scintilla.   Only with a viable Republican Party can this country achieve balanced governance – with active compromise - as in years past.

If Republicans wish to lower tax rates, they may first need to raise them.